Top-tier Enterprises Operating at Full Capacity to Rush to Meet Deadlines for the Final "531" Period, While Weak Demand in East China Leads to Capacity Contraction [Analysis by SMM]

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SMM News on May 9:

PV aluminum extrusion: In terms of PV extrusion, some leading enterprises in the PV extrusion sector reported that they maintained full production capacity this week, primarily because the frames produced this week could still meet the 531 period. However, according to the SMM survey, some enterprises in Shandong reported that since entering May, customer market demand has not been robust, leading to a further reduction in their PV extrusion capacity share. SMM will continue to monitor the actual order situation.

Raw material prices: During the period (May 6, 2025 - May 9, 2025), the center of the average spot price of aluminum shifted downward. The SMM A00 weekly average price was 19,750 yuan/mt, down 0.39% from the previous week. Overall, on the macro side, it still takes time for the transmission of domestic favorable policies, and there is no conclusion to the tariff war yet, so the bearish impact remains. On the fundamental side, the de-stocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory provides support for aluminum prices, but the expected weakening of subsequent demand and the weakening of aluminum production costs both provide support for bears. As bears enter the market, the futures market declines. With the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, it is expected that domestic aluminum prices will fluctuate considerably in the short term. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade around 19,300-19,800 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum is expected to trade around $2,370-2,400/mt.

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